Page 13 - BOSS Today Issue 18

5.0

4.5
4.0
FTE pupils (millions) 3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year (as at January)
Maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools
State-funded secondary schools

Figure: Full Time Equivalent State School Populations 1970-2010
Source: DfE School Census, School Level Annual School Census and Pupil Referral Unit Census

those. If they are featuring imported. Since BTS prices are already considering “Pupils and
BOGOF and you are offering negotiated with distributors in the possibility that UK
three for two, you won’t get in.” November/December for the government spending students
There is similar advice for following year, an adverse shift cutbacks could result in the
resellers: have promotional in exchange rates can turn a UK becoming more akin to are very
units positioned in the right slim margin into a negative one. the Continent, where parents,
places in the store; make sure rather than schools, have to conscious of
there’s a BTS section in the Next years’ intake provide pupils with basic what is cool,
store with all the right displays, What about the future? As stationery items.
materials and signage; have a the figure shows, the future Nevertheless, manufacturers and cheap
specialist catalogue focusing looks bright in terms of generally remain positive
on schools, a mailer and a demographics. While the about the future of BTS, as products are
marketing plan. External full-time equivalent number Turner explains: “Schools are
factors can also be important, of pupils of all ages in state- still focusing on teaching not cool and
as Turner explains: “Schools funded primary schools fell reading and writing, so they will
are quite community-based, after 1999, rising birth rates remain strong users of writing their parents
so if a reseller is active in its since 2002 - assisted by instruments and exercise books
local community that would immigration - have returned etc. Technology may have don’t want to
help.” Finally, as Knibbs points primary school populations more of an effect in future - kids embarrass
out, accept that the basis of to growth since 2010, with are being issued with iPads etc -
successful BTS promotions projections for 2021 seeing but these may be replacing PCs their kids
is price: “Be prepared to pass pupil numbers being some 18% rather than hard copy work, so
on price reductions to your higher than in 2012. Inevitably, their effect on OP usage may be by getting
customers and to reduce your secondary school pupil limited.”
own margin expectations. numbers will follow this trend The message appears to be them uncool
Everyone has to take a margin after a five year delay. “Keep calm and carry on....”
cut in BTS.” However, going forward, products.”
From a manufacturer’s point there is some uncertainty as to Martin Wilde is Managing Director
of view, these narrower margins the effect on the BTS market of of OP market research specialists
can be especially problematic schools turning into academies, Martin Wilde Associates Ltd
if the products are being and some manufacturers are (www.martinwildeassociates.com)

July/August 2013 | BOSS TODAY 13

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